Cipher Digital, the company that was Cipher Mining until February, owed $6.02bn of principal at 30 June and had earned nothing yet from the data centres that debt is paying for. All $24.8m of its second-quarter revenue came from mining bitcoin. Rent began at the first leased site in August, the company says, and the rest follows over the next year.
That is not a criticism of the leases, which are signed and look good. It is a description of timing, and of how much has to go right between now and 2027.
What the quarter showed
Revenue fell to $24.8m from $43.6m a year earlier, and the net loss widened to $267.5m. More than half of that loss, $150.5m, is the rising value of warrants granted to Google, a liability that grows as the share price does. On the company’s own definition, which removes those warrants, stock pay and a power-contract mark, adjusted EBITDA was minus $30.0m against plus $32.3m a year ago.
The mining itself is still cheap on cash. Cipher mined 347 bitcoin in the quarter, which we derive from the six-month and first-quarter totals in the filings, at $43,360 a coin in cost of revenue, or $36,746 after power resold to the grid. Add depreciation and amortisation to that net figure and it is $92,553, against revenue of $71,576 a coin. Its Odessa site runs on a fixed 2.8 cent power contract that has about a year left.
What is signed, and what is talk
Three leases are signed and filed. Barber Lake in Texas goes to Fluidstack for ten years, 207 MW of IT load in two phases, with Google standing behind the rent. Black Pearl, about 300 MW gross for 15 years, and Stingray, 100 MW gross for 15 years with rent from spring 2027, go to a tenant the 10-Q calls only “an investment grade hyperscaler” and the press releases name as Amazon Web Services.
Beyond that it thins quickly. A 900 MW site near San Antonio is an option to buy, not a lease. The company’s presentation lists Reveille and Ulysses as “In discussions for HPC hosting lease”. Of a portfolio of about 5.3 GW, 207 MW operates today, all of it mining, and 700 MW is contracted.
| Revenue, all bitcoin mining | $24.8m |
| Revenue from data centre leases | $0 |
| Net loss; of which Google warrants | $267.5m; $150.5m |
| Bitcoin mined | 347 |
| Cost per coin after power resales: cash; fully loaded | $36,746; $92,553 |
| Debt principal | $6,015.5m |
| Cash; restricted cash | $831.8m; $3,728.0m |
| Contracted to tenants | 700 MW gross, three leases |
| Share price, 18 September close | $18.34 |
The warrants cost Cipher more this quarter than its mining earned. They get dearer as the shares rise.
The bear case
The debt stack is large and specific. There are $4.54bn of secured project notes at 6.0 to 7.125 per cent, one for each leased site; $1.3bn of zero-coupon convertibles that holders can hand back at par in October 2029, converting at about $16.03 with capped calls to $23.32; and $172.5m of 2030 convertibles converting at about $4.45, with no capped call disclosed. Interest expense was $66.7m in the quarter.
Dilution runs the other way from the story. Shares outstanding rose 5.5 per cent in a year to 415.0m, and securities excluded from diluted earnings went from 86.1m to 204.7m. Stock-based pay was $30.5m, 123 per cent of revenue. Insiders sold about $89.8m of stock between January and July, most of it an entity linked to the Bitfury group.
The Google warrants have a floor. If the 24.2m warrant shares are worth less than $435m when exercise opens, Cipher must top Google up in shares or cash. That is $17.99 a share. The stock closed on Friday at $18.34.
The bull case
The tenants are about as strong as tenants get, and two of the leases run 15 years. The company puts contracted revenue at about $11.4bn, which is its own arithmetic rather than a filed figure, but the leases behind it are filed. The $3.73bn of restricted cash is the construction money, already raised.
Nor does the valuation lean on bitcoin: at $7.61bn of market value, the 646 coins held are worth $37.8m at their June mark. Investors are pricing a landlord. If the halls are delivered on time, the quarter that reads worst will be this one.
Sources, all retrieved 21 September 2026 from SEC EDGAR: the 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 and the earnings release and presentation filed on 8-K, all 4 August 2026; the FY2025 10-K; 8-Ks of 25 September, 1 October and 20 November 2025 and 8 and 15 June 2026; the Schedule 13D/A of June 2026 and Forms 4 for insider sales; EDGAR submissions data. Share price from Nasdaq, with Yahoo agreeing; market value is our arithmetic on the 10-Q cover count. Financials are in dollars because Cipher is a US-listed issuer with a calendar financial year. Cost per coin is our arithmetic from filed figures; the company published no per-coin cost this quarter. Contested: the 10-Q still gives the Google top-up threshold as $430m where the November 2025 8-K raised it to $435m, and we used the later figure; the presentation labels $4,560m “cash and cash equivalents” where the balance sheet shows $831.8m unrestricted; AWS is named in press releases and in a bond presentation filed on 8-K, but not in the 10-Q; Google’s backstop amount appears only in press releases; rent at Black Pearl from August is stated in the earnings release filed on 8-K and will first appear in the September-quarter 10-Q. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.